Some of the key mathematical results are stated without proof in order to make the underlying theory accessible to a wider audience. The book assumes a knowledge only of basic calculus, matrix algebra, and elementary statistics. The emphasis is on methods and the analysis of data sets. The logic and tools of model-building for stationary and nonstationary time series are developed in detail and numerous exercises, many of which make use of the included computer package, provide the reader with ample opportunity to develop skills in this area.
The core of the book covers stationary processes, ARMA and ARIMA processes, multivariate time series and state-space models, with an optional chapter on spectral analysis. Additional topics include harmonic regression, the Burg and Hannan-Rissanen algorithms, unit roots, regression with ARMA errors, structural models, the EM algorithm, generalized state-space models with applications to time series of count data, exponential smoothing, the Holt-Winters and ARAR forecasting algorithms, transfer function models and intervention analysis. Brief introductions are also given to cointegration and to nonlinear, continuous-time and long-memory models.
The time series package included in the back of the book is a slightly modified version of the package ITSM, published separately as ITSM for Windows, by Springer-Verlag, 1994. It does not handle such large data sets as ITSM for Windows, but like the latter, runs on IBM-PC compatible computers under either DOS or Windows (version 3.1 or later). The programs are all menu-driven so that the reader can immediately apply the techniques in the book to time series data, with a minimal investment of time in the computational and algorithmic aspects of the analysis.

Books on time series models deal mainly with models based on Box-Jenkins methodology which is generally represented by autoregressive integrated moving average models or some nonlinear extensions of these models, such as generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models. Statistical inference for these models is well developed and commonly used in practical applications, due also to statistical packages containing time series analysis parts. The present book is based on regression models used for time series. These models are used not only for modeling mean values of observed time se­ ries, but also for modeling their covariance functions which are often given parametrically. Thus for a given finite length observation of a time series we can write the regression model in which the mean value vectors depend on regression parameters and the covariance matrices of the observation depend on variance-covariance parameters. Both these dependences can be linear or nonlinear. The aim of this book is to give an unified approach to the solution of statistical problems for such time series models, and mainly to problems of the estimation of unknown parameters of models and to problems of the prediction of time series modeled by regression models.

1 Audience Students seeking master's degrees in applied statistics in the late 1960s and 1970s typically took a year-long sequence in statistical methods. Popular choices of the course text book in that period prior to the availability of high­ speed computing and graphics capability were those authored by Snedecor and Cochran, and Steel and Torrie. By 1980, the topical coverage in these classics failed to include a great many new and important elementary techniques in the data analyst's toolkit. In order to teach the statistical methods sequence with adequate coverage of topics, it became necessary to draw material from each of four or five text sources. Obviously, such a situation makes life difficult for both students and instructors. In addition, statistics students need to become proficient with at least one high-quality statistical software package. This book can serve as a standalone text for a contemporary year-long course in statistical methods at a level appropriate for statistics majors at the master's level or other quantitatively oriented disciplines at the doctoral level. The topics include both concepts and techniques developed many years ago and a variety of newer tools not commonly found in textbooks.

This book presents a new statistical method of constructing a price index of a financial asset where the price distributions are skewed and heavy-tailed and investigates the effectiveness of the method. In order to fully reflect the movements of prices or returns on a financial asset, the index should reflect their distributions. However, they are often heavy-tailed and possibly skewed, and identifying them directly is not easy.

Non-uniform random variate generation is an established research area in the intersection of mathematics, statistics and computer science. Although random variate generation with popular standard distributions have become part of every course on discrete event simulation and on Monte Carlo methods, the recent concept of universal (also called automatic or black-box) random variate generation can only be found dispersed in literature.

This is the first book that integrates useful parametric and nonparametric techniques with time series modeling and prediction, the two important goals of time series analysis. Such a book will benefit researchers and practitioners in various fields such as econometricians, meteorologists, biologists, among others who wish to learn useful time series methods within a short period of time. The book also intends to serve as a reference or text book for graduate students in statistics and econometrics.

This book provides an introduction to the theory of linear systems and control for students in business mathematics, econometrics, computer science, and engineering. The focus is on discrete time systems, which are the most relevant in business applications, as opposed to continuous time systems, requiring less mathematical preliminaries. The subjects treated are among the central topics of deterministic linear system theory: controllability, observability, realization theory, stability and stabilization by feedback, LQ-optimal control theory. Kalman filtering and LQC-control of stochastic systems are also discussed, as are modeling, time series analysis and model specification, along with model validation.

Modern astronomical research faces a vast range of statistical issues which have spawned a revival in methodological activity among astronomers. The Statistical Challenges in Modern Astronomy II conference, held in June 1996 at the Pennsylvania State University five years after the first conference, brought astronomers and statisticians together to discuss methodological issues of common interest. Time series analysis, image analysis, Bayesian methods, Poisson processes, nonlinear regression, maximum likelihood, multivariate classification, and wavelet and multiscale analyses were important themes.

As in the previous meetings, the theory of copulas has arelevant place in this book, as well as promising research on the more general concept of quasi- copulas. Other papers are devoted to the theory and compatibility of distri- butions, models for survival distributions and other well-known distributions. As was traditional in the previous meetings, several papers treat the problem of measuring dependence, monotonicity and ordering. A new set of papers is devoted to proposing some statistical models in aspects such as goodness of fit assessment, testing independence, estimating association parameters, etc.

In recent years statistical physics has made significant progress as a result of advances in numerical techniques. While good textbooks exist on the general aspects of statistical physics, the numerical methods and the new developments based on large-scale computing are not usually adequately presented.

This book focuses on different facets of flight data analysis, including the basic goals, methods, and implementation techniques. As mass flight data possesses the typical characteristics of time series, the time series analysis methods and their application for flight data have been illustrated from several aspects, such as data filtering, data extension, feature optimization, similarity search, trend monitoring, fault diagnosis, and parameter prediction, etc.

This volume contains the text of the twenty-five papers presented at two workshops entitled Maximum-Entropy and Bayesian Methods in Applied Statistics, which were held at the University of Wyoming from June 8 to 10, 1981, and from August 9 to 11, 1982. The workshops were organized to bring together researchers from different fields to critically examine maxi­ mum-entropy and Bayesian methods in science, engineering, medicine, oceanography, economics, and other disciplines.

This book aims to present a comprehensive, self-contained, and concise overview of extreme value theory for time series, incorporating the latest research trends alongside classical methodology. Appropriate for graduate coursework or professional reference, the book requires a background in extreme value theory for i.i.d. data and basics of time series.