Andrew F. Krepinevich, "7 Deadly Scenarios: A Military Futurist Explores War in the 21st Century"

A global pandemic finds millions swarming across the U.S. border.
Major U.S. cities are leveled by black-market nukes.
China’s growing civil unrest ignites a global showdown.
Pakistan’s collapse leads to a hunt for its nuclear weapons.

What if the worst that could happen actually happens? How would we respond? Are we ready?

These are the questions that Andrew Krepinevich asks—and answers—in this timely and often chilling new book, which describes the changing face of war in the twenty-first century and identifies seven deadly scenarios that threaten our security in the crucial years ahead. As president of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments and consultant to secretaries of defense, the CIA, the Homeland Security Council and the Joint Forces Command, Krepinevich’s job is to think the unthinkable—and prepare a response in the event our worst nightmares become reality.

Basing his analysis on open intelligence sources, an assessment of the latest global and political trends, and his knowledge of contemporary military history, Krepinevich starts each of the seven scenarios in the context of current geopolitical realities and vividly tracks the path to crisis. From the implosion of Pakistan to a worldwide cyberattack, from the consequences of a timed withdrawal from Iraq to the likelihood of a China on the march, Krepinevich reveals the forces—both overt and covert—that are in play; the ambitions of world powers, terrorist groups, and rogue states; and the actions and counteractions both our enemies and our allies can be expected to take.

As riveting as a thriller, 7 Deadly Scenarios takes you inside the corridors of power, peers into the world of defense planning, and explores U.S. military and political strategy in the past, present, and likely future. The result is a must-read book that will trigger discussion, thought, and—hopefully—action.

Warning: All quotes and citations in Chapters 1-7 dated after Fall 2008 are fabrications. See page 29 for details. Therefore it is extremely dangerous to "quote" this book out of context.

Contents

Maps

Introduction: A Glimpse of the Future
 Pearl Harbor
 The Dawn of Blitzkrieg
 Millennium Challenge
 Yoda
 Scenarios: Preparing for an Uncertain Future
 Leaving the Comfort Zone
 Don't Try to Predict the Future-You Can't
 Scenarios and Strategy
 Why Do We Have A Hard Time Changing Our Vision?
 Thinking About the Next War
 "The Streetfighter State"
 Insights from "The Streetfighter State"

1 The Collapse of Pakistan
 Assassination
 "The Century's Greatest Crisis"
 The Slow Disintegration of Pakistan
 The Rise of Radical Islamism: The Madrassas
 The Ungoverned Areas and the Radical Islamist Movement
 Run-Up to the Current Crisis
 What Is to Be Done?

2 War Comes to America
 Ten Determined Men
 Remember the Alamo?
 No Fingerprints?
 The Red Connection
 The Spartacus Effect
 "My Fellow Americans"
 "Rag-Heads 60,000; U.S. 0"

3 Pandemic
 South of the Border, Down Mexico Way…
 The Pandemic "Plague"
 A Global Economy In Crisis
 An Imposing Enemy
 "Plague" In the Information Age
 Chaos on America's Doorstep
 Go North, Young Man…
 The Shadow of Death
 How Did It Happen?
 The World's Weak Defenses
 Globalization: The Great Enabler?
 Waging War on Pandemic Influenza
 Mexican Exodus
 "Moonshine"
 The Coming Wave

4 Armageddon: The Assault on Israel
 An Echo from the Past
 The Second Lebanon War
 Iraq and the Sunni Arab States
 Iran Ascendant
 The Mullahs' Descent
 The Growing Crisis
 The 28 Mordad
 The Sinking of the Moshe Dayan
 "Greater Than Entebbe"
 Sliding Toward Armageddon
 An Iranian "Guarantee"?
 The View from Washington
 The Last Hours of Peace?

5 China's "Assassin's Mace"
 The Last Days of Peace?
 Thinking About the Day After Tomorrow
 Dragon or Panda?
 The Sputtering Engine of Growth
 Is Demography Destiny?
 The Little Violent Emperors
 Water
 The Long Path to War
 China's Military Transformation: The Assassin's Mace
 China's Threat to the Global Commons
 Chinese Challenge to U.S. Command of the Sea and Undersea
 Chinese Challenge to U.S. Access to Space
 Chinese Threats to Cyberspace
 China's Strategic Depth
 China's Crisis
 Caught Napping
 We Seek No Wider Conflict

6 Just Not-on-Time: The War on the Global Economy
 Background to the Current Crisis: The Global Shipping Network
 Background to the Current Crisis: The Global Energy Trade
 The Forces of Disorder
 "The Platforms Are Burning"
 "The Mother of All Oil Fires"
 The Cyberblockade
 Baby Hiroshima
 Blue Christmas

7 Who Lost Iraq?
 The "Blame Game"
 Not So Fast
 Stagflation and Declining U.S. Support
 Iraq's Factions Reemerge
 The Short Recessional
 The Stand at Najaf
 The Long Road Home
 The Shi'a Surge
 The Turks Make Their Move
 Exit the Advisers
 The War Spreads
 On the Outside Looking In

Conclusion: Lighting the Path Ahead
 So What?
 "Wasting Assets"
 What Is Strategy?
 Barriers to Good Strategy
 What Is to Be Done?
 Creating New Paths to the Future
 Concepts of Operations
 Willingness to Designate "Winners" and "Losers"
 A Sense of Urgency
 Sustained Effort
 Emphasis on the Operational Level of War
 The Customer
 Training Facilities
 Resources
 Input in Developing Future Requirements
 Conclusion

Acknowledgments
Index

Tags: qWorldPolitics, qMilitaryPolicy, qStrategy, qChina, qForecasting

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