Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies - Report 2

This is the second of the two reports of the series, Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies, discussed how technology forecasts were historically made, assessed various existing forecasting systems, and identified desirable attributes of a next-generation persistent long-term forecasting system for disruptive technologies. This second book attempts to sketch out high-level forecasting system designs. In addition, the book provides further evaluation of the system attributes defined in the first report, and evidence of the feasibility of creating a system with those attributes.

The book analyzes existing forecasting strategies and methods, and discusses in detail the characteristics of a long-term persistent forecasting system. In this report, the committee attempts to create a model for a buildable forecasting system incorporating many of the methods and characteristics outlined in the first report.

The reports are intended to help the Department of Defense and the intelligence community identify and develop a forecasting system that will assist in detecting and tracking global technology trends, producing persistent long-term forecasts of disruptive technologies, and characterizing their potential impact on future U.S. warfighting and homeland defense capabilities.

Brief Contents
Preface
Acknowledgment of Reviewers
Acronyms
Glossary
Summary
1 Introduction
2 Model Design Options for Forecasting Systems
3 Analysis and Final Thoughts
Appendix A Biographical Sketches of Committee Members
Appendix B Meetings and Speakers
Appendix C Workshop Attendees
Appendix D Transcript of the Workshop
Appendix E Transcript of the Workshop's Breakout Sessions
Appendix F Visualizations of Workshop Discussions
Transcript of the Workshop for Appendix D
Transcript of Breakout Sessions for Appendix E

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